## Uncertainty Quantification and Management using COSSAN Software

### 27th - 28th April 2020

### Online Training Course

### This event was previously scheduled for end of March, however in light of the recent pandemic, we are now conducting this event online. In comparison to previous trainings
this will be lightweight. For this reason, it will be at a reduced fee.

Institute for Risk and Uncertainty (UK) in collaboration with University of Strathclyde and Institut für Risiko und Zuverlässigkeit (Germany), are offering a training course on Uncertainty Quantification using COSSAN Software.

### Structure of the training programme

Each day focuses on a specific topic. This allows the participants to attend a specific training day.

### Aims and Learning outcomes

You will learn the main techniques available for dealing with Risk Analysis and Uncertainty Quantification through an easy to use, yet powerful computational software.

#### Main Concepts and techniques

- Random Variables and Random Variables Sets
- Monte Carlo simulation and advanced simulation techniques (Subset simulation, Line Sampling, Importance Sampling, Latin Hypercube Sampling)
- Global and Local Sensitivity analysis
- Global optimization techniques
- Surrogate Models (Artificial Neural Networks, Response surface, Kriging)
- Reliability based and robust design

### Details:

Registration | Register |
---|---|

Date: | 27 - 28 April 2020 |

Venue: | N/A (Online) |

Time: | TBD |

Fee: | Industrial Attendee: £125 Academic Attendee: £95 Student/PhD: £50 |

Technical Requirements: | The training sessions will be accessible to all via video conferencing, for which we will send details closer to time. A small section of the training will involve trying out a demo software. At present, this demo requires windows or linux systems. If you don't own one it is not a problem, as this is a very small section of the training and you will be able to see how it works on the presenter's machine. |

### Tentative Programme

- Introduction Training course
- Getting the Software
- COSSAN-X
- OpenCossan
- stable and development
- stable from FileExchange
- Command line interface
- Introduction to Cossan Software
- Introduction and software development
- COSSAN-X
- Main features
- Tutorial - Define determinist model - Cantilever Beam
- Interaction with 3rd party software
- Tutorial - Connect to Ishigami function (not available in the Demo version)
- Tutorial - Connect to Ishigami function (OpenCossan)
- OpenCossan
- Overview
- Tutorial - Define determinist model - Cantilever Beam
- OpenCossan 2.0
- Overview
- Tutorial - Define determinist model - Cantilever Beam
- Uncertainty characterisation and quantification
- Introduction
- Uncertainty Characterisatiom
- Design of Experiment
- Tutorial Design of Experiment (Cantilever Beam) - COSSAN-X
- Tutorial Design of Experiment (Cantilever Beam) - OpenCossan
- Monte Carlo simulation
- Introduction
- Tutorial Buffon experiment - COSSAN-X
- Tutorial Uncertainty Quantification (Cantilever Beam) - COSSAN-X
- Tutorial Uncertainty Quantification (Cantilever Beam) - OpenCossan
- Integration - Dart method
- Tutorial - Estimation of pi
- Reliability Analysis
- Introduction
- Reliability Index and Design Point
- Tutorial Reliability (Cantilever Beam) - COSSAN-X
- Tutorial Reliability (Cantilever Beam) - OpenCossan
- Advance Monte Carlo methods
- Important sampling
- Line sampling
- Subset simulation
- Tutorial Reliability advanced Monte Carlo (Cantilever Beam) - COSSAN-X
- Tutorial Reliability advanced Monte Carlo (Cantilever Beam) - OpenCossan
- Sensitivity Analysis
- Local sensitivity analysis
- Tutorial local sensitivity (Cantilever Beam) - COSSAN-X
- Tutorial local sensitivity (Cantilever Beam)- OpenCossan
- Global sensitivity analysis
- Tutorial global sensitivity (Infection model) - OpenCossan
- Tutorial Reliability advanced Monte Carlo (Cantilever Beam) - OpenCossan
- Optimisazion Analysis
- Introduction
- Tutorial Cantilever beam - COSSAN-X
- Tutorial Cantilever beam - OpenCossan
- Robust optimisation
- Tutorial Transmission Antenna Tower - COSSAN-X
- Tutorial Transmission Antenna Tower- OpenCossan
- Metamodel
- Introduction (overview)
- Tutorial meta-model ishigami function - COSSAN-X
- Bayesian and Credal Networks
- Introduction and overview
- Tutorial meta-model ishigami function - COSSAN-X
- ...
- Stochastic Model Updating
- Introduction to Bayesian Model Updating
- Part I: Conceptual Introduction to Model Updating
- Part II: Conceptual Introduction to Advanced Sampling Techniques
- Implementation of Bayesian Model Updating on OpenCossan
- Introduction to the COSSAN objects for Bayesian Model Updating set-up
- Tutorial 2D System
- Assignment: Tutorial Linear Static System - OpenCossan
- Assignment Worksheet
- Assignment Solution